Scenario tool

The Model directional

Change an assumption about the United States and see where the pressure goes in Mexico: the peso, inflation, Banxico, and growth.

This is a causal map, not a forecast. It does not make up a target for the peso or GDP. The links are more defensible than a pretend-precise coefficient. When the forces disagree, the answer is “mixed.”

Try an assumption

Baseline: no additional US tariff; no change to the current Fed rate or US growth path. Every slider is a change from that baseline.

Change the assumptions

Each slider is a change from the current setting, not a prediction.

Direction of pressure model

No magnitude or timing is implied.

How the change travels

The useful part of the model is the chain. Start with the assumption, follow the mechanism, then check the live reading above.

Assumption

US tariff on Mexican goods

Fed policy rate

US economic growth

Main channels

Demand for Mexican exports

Rate gap and the peso

Imported prices

Banxico's response

Readings to watch

USD/MXN

Headline and core inflation

Banxico policy rate

GDP and IGAE

Green marks the path activated by the assumptions above. It does not mean good or bad.

Saved scenarios

Save a set of assumptions and come back to it later. It stays in this browser and is never uploaded.

Rules and limits

The model records the sign of each link. If two active assumptions push a reading in opposite directions, it reports “mixed.” It deliberately says nothing about size, timing, probability, or what Banxico will actually do.

Change	Direction used here	Main reason
Higher US tariff	Weaker peso · higher inflation pressure · higher Banxico pressure · slower growth	Less export demand and a weaker external balance. Mexican inflation is affected through the peso, not because a US tariff is itself a Mexican price.
Higher US policy rate	Weaker peso · higher inflation pressure · higher Banxico pressure · slower growth	A smaller Mexico–US rate advantage puts pressure on the peso and limits room for Banxico to ease.
Faster US growth	Stronger peso · lower inflation pressure · ambiguous Banxico pressure · faster growth	The United States buys most Mexican exports, so stronger US demand supports Mexican activity. For Banxico, stronger demand and a firmer peso pull in opposite directions.

The current readings come from the same Banxico and INEGI series used elsewhere on the site. See the Sources page and each linked chart to inspect them.