THE MEXICO BRIEF
Interactive model

The Model MODEL

Move a lever and see how it changes the peso, inflation, Banxico's rate, and growth. Start with one of the preset scenarios, then adjust the sliders yourself.

This model shows the direction and rough size of each move, computed from the sourced elasticities footnoted below. It is not a forecast. Every output carries the MODEL stamp, and none of it is live data. For the current readings, see the Briefing.

The levers

Four external forces you set as inputs

What it does MODEL

Baseline → modeled (vs. today's readings)

The transmission

The elasticities (footnoted)

These coefficients are directional. They capture the mechanism and rough scale rather than values estimated to the last basis point, and they come from the standard literature and the structure of Banxico and INEGI data; a real forecast would estimate them on data. Two limits to read them by. First, Banxico's rate here feeds only growth, so a hike neither disinflates nor defends the peso in this model. Second, the coefficients are marginal, so the far ends of the sliders understate a real crisis rather than exaggerate it.